
Track institutional positioning
Commercials hedge real business risk and tend to be right at extremes while speculators follow momentum and tend to be wrong at turning points.
Obtain objective sentiment data
The COT Index normalizes positioning on a 0 to 100 scale, making readings comparable across different contracts and time periods for systematic analysis.
Identify sentiment extremes
Extreme readings historically precede major trend changes. When commercials reach extreme bullish positioning while speculators are heavily short, reversals often follow.
What is the difference between commercial and speculator positioning?
Commercials are producers and processors who hedge real business risk. They tend to be contrarian and right at extremes. Large speculators follow momentum and tend to be wrong at turning points.
How do I interpret the COT Index scale?
The index normalizes positioning on a 0 to 100 scale. A reading above 90 for commercials suggests extreme bullish positioning by smart money. Below 10 signals the opposite. These extremes historically precede major trend changes.
What timeframe is best for COT-based trading?
COT data updates weekly, making it best suited for swing and position trading rather than intraday scalping. Use the index as a weekly sentiment filter for medium-to-long-term directional bias on daily charts.
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