Plan Trades with Probability
Options sellers place short strikes outside the expected range for statistical edge. The market implies less than 16% chance price reaches beyond the cone boundary.
Spot Unusual Volatility Pricing
Compare the cone's expected range to actual price movement. Moves beyond the cone are statistically unusual and may signal significant shifts.
Anticipate Breakout Potential
Even for equity traders, the cone provides objective measurement of expected movement. Set stops and targets aligned with probability-based expectations.
Why does the cone widen the further out in time you look?
Uncertainty grows with time. The mathematical relationship is the square root of time. A 4-day expected move is twice a 1-day move, not four times. The widening cone reflects this statistical reality that longer timeframes have wider ranges of possible outcomes.
How do options sellers use the probability cone?
Options sellers place short strikes outside the cone's boundaries, betting price stays within the expected range. A put sold below the lower cone boundary has less than 16% probability of being breached according to the market's implied volatility.
Does the probability cone update in real time?
Yes. As implied volatility changes throughout the day and as time passes, the cone recalculates. Higher IV widens the cone. Lower IV narrows it. The passage of time narrows remaining expected move as less uncertainty remains.
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